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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

VIX tech outlook

The VIX is a slow starter this time as I wonder why some people seem to sell volatility although its far too early. VIX should reach the 40 level quite soon once its triggers above 35. With 40 the first target 45 is a likely target as I have to revise the overall targets down. ' weeks ago I thought we might be able to reach the 60 level again but I have to admit the underlying bullish euphoria which we have and will hav for another 2-3 months basically might even make the 50 a tough target. We need to drop below 800 SPX to get there and I doubt we will see levels below 800 for this quarter. Pure technically speaking a 57 level is a 38% retracement level and in the lower probability range. 46 as the 24% retracement seems more likely we need a panic component to see levels over 50 and only a drop below 800 might trigger that.

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