How the inside world evaluates the financial crisis

Check out this earnings estimates and consider the hidden message - concentrate on the earnings of financials and consumer discretionary. So financials have a humungeous jump in earnings and consumer discretionary as well in quater 2 after the bonus checks have been paid out. Consumer discretionary means besides cars luxury products. I basically doubt that earning in 2009 will be that good but I do expect after the low in Q1 that the markets pick up for quarters and we drop into the illusions the crises has been solved. That is by no circumstances true and I warn to get reluctant - what we do see now is the mini version of what is about to come starting Q4 2009. In elliot wave terms we are right now in wave 1 down big time frame and wave 2 up is those 2 quarters (Q2 and Q3 2009). Wave 3 down will be the most destructive one and a retest of the lows of 2002/3 is the mandatory part of it. More on that as we have a settled low for wave 1.

Source: Thomson Reuters and Standard & Poor's as of Sept. 30, 2008

Excerpt

*Based on market capitalization.
**Thomson Reuters is unable to calculate growth rates from negative base-year earnings. In the fourth quarter of 2007, the financial sector lost $17.5 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the sector should earn more than $36.9 billion, Thomson says.

Investors say consensus earnings estimates for 2008 still look too high.

S&P	Sector	3Q '08	4Q '08	1Q '09	2Q '09
Weighting*		(Estimate)	(Estimate)	(Estimate)	(Estimate)
14.70%	Financials	-58%	N/A**	151%	260%
13.30%	Energy	53%	23%	26%	6%
15.90%	Technology	8%	9%	14%	18%
11.20%	Industrials	3%	3%	9%	6%
13.30%	Health Care	6%	9%	7%	9%
8.60%	Consumer Discretionary	-8%	12%	22%	122%
12.50%	Consumer Staples	-1%	9%	8%	7%
3.40%	Materials	6%	30%	24%	17%
3.15%	Telecommunications	-5%	-4%	6%	6%
3.70%	Utilities	3%	5%	7%	7%
	Average growth rate	-2.30%	47.30%	25.70%	28.00%