On the left hand EEM (I-Share on emerging markets), which dropped steeper than the most markets as they have been rising steeper as well.
Wave 1 down was 15 points and wave 3 down should have the magnitude of 1.618 times (24 points) which we have almost reached our target around 29/30. The risk is down to 27 and we soon (3-5 weeks) will bottom out around target as the Shanghai market in the 1800/2000 area.
For bravehearts, that's an area to buy the minimum recovery will be around 25% or 6 points and likely even 38.2% retracement about 10 points up. this is a pure trading perspective and long term investors should use this rally to get rid of the exposure. The fundamental background is like throwing a stone into water the immediate circle or wave hits the countries directly involved and it takes some time to translate into a crises for the outer ring (emerging markets) but finally it does. This decoupling bullshit the Goldilocks-cheerleaders tried to sell to the world is stupid in best case - the sentence which always should alert you is 'This time everything is different' - it's not as long as greed and fear are the core of human financial / economic behaviour. Still China, for example, trades at 12 times earnings on H-shares and with economy slowing down to half of 5% growth that is for the next 12 months a good value as people still shop for cheap value products.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
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- getagrip
- I am a professional independent trader
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