THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, November 15, 2010

brainstorming Monday - sentiment

1. Sentiment is very bullish and more downside can be expected but towards end of the week wave A down of the current week will be over as Venus and Jupiter turn retrogade and a benign Full Moon in Taurus is due on the 21st. Which should trigger a brief wave up before followed by wave C down which is all within wave 4 down. Followed by a wave up final 5 count into Jan or rather even Feb as we will likely see Obama falter publically in the tax question and wash down the rest of the reputation - most likely the most noticable thing about him in history books will be his physical appearance if he does not start WW3. G 20 was a big failure and America has lost quite some standing as the leading global power.

excerpt

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2010Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment71%67%68%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441 . editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish57.6%48.2%51.2%
Bearish28.529.821.6
Neutral14.022.027.2
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus58%56%57%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator55.0%54.5%54.1%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180 . info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment
excerpt 2
DateNAV Adjusted N/U Ratio
11/110.512
11/100.511
11/090.494
11/080.486
11/050.476
11/040.474
11/030.467
11/020.469
11/010.438
10/290.424
10/280.424
10/270.430
10/260.458
10/250.449
10/220.435
10/210.465
10/200.462
10/190.434
10/180.430
10/150.409

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