THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, November 12, 2010

SPX update

Well as you can see for yourself a weekly (green ) 9 count almost always is followed by a correction to some degree as a basic rule - we have reached that on a global scale in many markets last week. On the other hand the red count which usually gets completed with a 13 is not finished yet and what you can not see here is the monthly red count also at 10 for the SPX which says at some point we even will make a higher high. Also by elliot counts we just have finished wave 3 of 5 in the SPX and after wave 4 down running right now we will get a final wave 5 of 5 up. So far wave 3 of 5 has produced 210 points and we can expect wave 4 to give back around a quarter at least- hence 1170ish is the least we can expect. I am rather looking for a more dramatic move but it really depends on the fact that we earmark the VIX below 18 first. If the ongoing move is already the correction the magnitude will be shallow and 1170 might do the trick. As astrology has an double retrogade on the same day with Venus and Jupiter turning direct on the 18th which should have a positive spin and we manage to rise back into that time frame we can expect a deeper correction of at least 10 % magnitude making a brief new high beforehand. Droping to that date would rather trigger the final upmove right away. What makes the whole situation a bit tense is the webot call that a powerful event will unfold around the 14th which will be exponential to 9/11 as we have reached basically bullish sentiment now the market could drop substantially but in my experience a major high comes with a bit higher sentiment numbers as the 10 day MA for the ISE Call / Put ratio should be around 145 at least being at 130 as of yesterday. We will have an intermarket divergence though as the NDX may have seen the big top and SPX still has to go 50-100 points higher overall within the next 2-3 months. At big tops we always tend to have this kind of divergence.

No comments:

About Me

I am a professional independent trader