THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

brainstorming tuesday

1. Sentiment has improved remarkably over the last weeks to a level from where a correction is imminent. As we are heading for a big Wednesday showdown as election results and a FED announcement about QE2 size are due - size matters here by all means. Two scenario's with a 500bil - 1 tril. priced in the media is reporting - I rather tend to think the priced in is 1 tril although it will trigger a brief spike up price action before turning into a steep correction with magnitude of first around 2 % up followed by max. 10 % down. Second scenario is the Goldman call of 2 tril. which should trigger a steep Dollar slide right away accompanied by an immediate sell off in stocks with stocks droping rather 15%. It will depend a bit on the DC outcome as well as the loss of congress is a sure bet for DEMS but as I heard yesterday without having a steep knowledge of that matter even in the Senat we might have trouble but plenty of very close races might not deliver results for a few more days which might for itself be a negative spin for markets. As we have Neptun going stationary on the 6th Nov. some trouble in reliable information is warranted around these days. Hence recounts and similar actions around deception is the basic theme of this midterm elections.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2010Blank Image
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment68%57%58%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441 .
AAII Index
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus57%55%56%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180 .
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients

Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment
finally a typical marker for highs would be such a cover as we also are in a week that retail investors have been returning to the rat race by an inflow of roughly 3 bil into the US stock markets.


2. Here we have another manipulation trade as the wild bull run in Turkey was to squeeze all the shorts out which was accomplished plus that a 5.5 bil stock placement at lofty levels had to be placed as Garanti bank is one of the top performers and movers. With a smart operator the stock went up from 7 to 9 in the last few weeks which could be achieved with a war-chest of 500 mil easily and the outcome is roughly a 1 bil higher price even after the 10% discount and even on the 500 bil pool you made a few hundred mil. - thats how insider do trading. Just read 'reminiscence of a stock operator' and you know how its being done for 100 years nothing has changed.


Nov. 2, 2010, 4:01 a.m. EDT

BBVA to buy stake in Turkey’s Garanti

Deal allows the Spanish bank to enter fast-growing Turkey

By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch

MADRID (MarketWatch) — Spanish financial giant Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria on Tuesday said it will take a 24.9% stake in Turkiye Garanti Bankasi, one of Turkey's biggest banks, entering a country where it sees huge growth potential.

BBVA (BBVA 12.54, -0.61, -4.64%) (ES:BBVA 8.90, -0.21, -2.31%) will pay 4.2 billion euros ($5.84 billion) for the stake. It will acquire 18.6% from General Electric’s(GE 15.95, -0.07, -0.44%) financial-services division, GE Capital, and another 6.3% from Garanti’s parent company, Turkish conglomerate Dogus Group.

The deal represents a 10% discount to Garanti’s average closing price last week.

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