1. Sentiment has improved remarkably over the last weeks to a level from where a correction is imminent. As we are heading for a big Wednesday showdown as election results and a FED announcement about QE2 size are due - size matters here by all means. Two scenario's with a 500bil - 1 tril. priced in the media is reporting - I rather tend to think the priced in is 1 tril although it will trigger a brief spike up price action before turning into a steep correction with magnitude of first around 2 % up followed by max. 10 % down. Second scenario is the Goldman call of 2 tril. which should trigger a steep Dollar slide right away accompanied by an immediate sell off in stocks with stocks droping rather 15%. It will depend a bit on the DC outcome as well as the loss of congress is a sure bet for DEMS but as I heard yesterday without having a steep knowledge of that matter even in the Senat we might have trouble but plenty of very close races might not deliver results for a few more days which might for itself be a negative spin for markets. As we have Neptun going stationary on the 6th Nov. some trouble in reliable information is warranted around these days. Hence recounts and similar actions around deception is the basic theme of this midterm elections.
|MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2010|
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
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Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
finally a typical marker for highs would be such a cover as we also are in a week that retail investors have been returning to the rat race by an inflow of roughly 3 bil into the US stock markets.
2. Here we have another manipulation trade as the wild bull run in Turkey was to squeeze all the shorts out which was accomplished plus that a 5.5 bil stock placement at lofty levels had to be placed as Garanti bank is one of the top performers and movers. With a smart operator the stock went up from 7 to 9 in the last few weeks which could be achieved with a war-chest of 500 mil easily and the outcome is roughly a 1 bil higher price even after the 10% discount and even on the 500 bil pool you made a few hundred mil. - thats how insider do trading. Just read 'reminiscence of a stock operator' and you know how its being done for 100 years nothing has changed.
Nov. 2, 2010, 4:01 a.m. EDT