THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

brainstorming wednesday

1. Coming close to the low of wave A within wave 4 down as yesterdays low may have been the low already as we are heading for the Venus and Jupiter retrogade on the 18th which should spark a rally of some magnitude or as I suspect wave B up. Plus as mentioned before the upcoming Full Moon in Taurus which will be benign as well around the 21st. Hence we can expect resolution of the Irish situation around that weekend followed by a relief rally.
Hence at least a retest of the 1195*1200 gap area is the likely outcome before wave C down kicks in right after Thanksgiving the stars do imply a great deal of volatility and a a final retrogade of Uranus for this year. Interestingly when Uranus turned retrogade the first time this year at 5th July that marked almost exactly the low of that steeper correction. Now on 5th Dec. it will again bring a turning point and high volatility. Especially since the 2 days before Mars will be square to the same Uranus which is a bit dangerous to say the least as we will have extreme weather conditions, earthquakes and even terrorist attacks including an attack of Israel. Around those days we should have the low of wave C down before the manipulators can start wave 5 up to the final highs of this campaign which should produce higher highs compared to the recent ones. We will try to figure out the levels as the dust settles around the 5th but my basic assumption for the DOW is around 11800-12000 which is the top level for the right shoulder of a huge head and shoulder formation.

2. I had written months ago that the second big wave down for stocks would come from the Bond markets and that move has begun already but seems to be within a tolerance level so far although a steep sell of the last days triggered the stock correction. This week I will show you a yield chart for the 30 year Treasury which clearly implies that they have to rise over 5 % mid term which will mark the failure of the FED's whole operation and even bring huge losses to the then 3 tril. balance cheat of the FED but also takes the easy money away from the banks yield curve trades. The banks will be left with real risk and swiftly a lot of balance cheat in banks wil turn in a bloody mess even on the current cheating regulation president transperancy has allowed for the big fat cats.


The Second Dip Arriving

As we await clarification of what the present 'tipping point' is all about, something that is starting to come into focus is that a calamitous downdraft, like the one spotted in late 2007 in predictive linguistics work, which arrived within hours of the October 7/8, 2008 forecast, seems ready to be eclipsed in coming weeks.

Not that it's 'in the bag' yet, but the economic pressure is quickly ratcheting up and since the Gee20 was pretty much a bust from the US' perspective, we have to look at some of the tea leaves as being potentially devastating.

One such data point would be the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing report which suggests that a decline to late 2008/2009 lows is just ahead.

Adding to the obviousness of the chart is former chief Bubblemeister Alan Greenspan's observation that "Deficit Worries Could Trigger a Bond Market Crisis". Gosh, no kidding?

Then we have the dandy explanation of how the ranks of the really, really poor will expand late this month as Emergency Unemployment Extensions are phased out. As the Kitsap (County Washington - west of Seattle) Business Journal article on point explains it...

"For the past year, eligible jobless workers could receive up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits. This includes up to 26 weeks of regular benefits, up to 53 weeks of emergency unemployment compensation (EUC) and up to 20 weeks of extended benefits. "

Unions - which seem to be the pals of this administration, have turned up the heat with the AFL-CIO blog saying people should "Tell Congress: Maintain Unemployment Help, Not Tax Cuts for the Rich."

While that may sound good, the idea that regular voters can tell congress anything, except during the 20-minutes before an election, is absurd. The rest of the time, that falls to special interests, such as labor unions and those special interest groups and PAC's that wander around Washington holding competitive money-throwing festivals before every major issue vote.


And aside here: I assume you've been through the list of organizations which have seen the Health and Human Services list of "Approved Applications for Waiver of the Annual Limits Requirements of the PHS Act Sectrion 2711 as of November 1, 2010"? Fair number of unions showing there but also big financial/insurance outfits like Aetna and CIGNA.

We note with some disdain that this first report means that 1,175,411 workers (out of about 154-million workers) will not be held to the same standards as the rest of us, which means the idea of a 'single national standard' is out the window. Sold another whopper, were we? Quick, look surprised.


The US Fed, which is busily buying up treasuries for the next week, or so, of permanent open market operations, between $5-$7 billion worth most days, has gotten its nuts in a vice. Where POMO before used to have a promotional effect on stock prices, that seems to have faded now, and POMO's seem rather baked in the cake now.

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