THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, November 22, 2010

brainstorming monday

1. The sentiment numbers seem t have come a bit lower but the most complex one and also with most impact in my book is the last one here the graph from Citi which has reached the highest reading in years. Another very intriguing fact in order to get short term bearish this week and also very bearish soon after wave 5 of 5 is done early next year is that VIX has dropped to our required level of 18 again making a daily count 12. A close below 18today should produce the 13 count and activate this time Defcon 1 for the SPX and DOW this week as we are about to complete wave B up in the Thanksgiving week followed by a wave C down thereafter.

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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2010Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment64%71%67%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441 . editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish40.0%57.6%48.2%
Bearish32.528.529.8
Neutral27.514.022.0
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus53%58%56%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator54.4%55.0%54.5%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180 . info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment
2.Obama is a snake oil salesman but who is not in DC as they all have declared the recession to be over.
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Time-Lapse Video Of Food Stamp Participation Rates During The "New Normal"

Tyler Durden's picture




With everyone chanting the praises of the "better than abysmal" economy, we decided to post a time lapse video (since cartoons are all that stand an even remote chance of attracting some attention) prepared by John Lohman, of just how the New Normal has been progressing, both since the starts of the great depression in December 2007, and more importantly, since the beginning of the "end" of the recession. The result may surprise you. As John points out: food stamps - the only thing keeping 43 million Americans from going postal." Hopefully the end of extended unemployment benefits coming December 1 won't be that first one additional straw on the camel's back that leads to a full blown fracture.

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