The chart of the quarterly XU100 tells the whole story just by the price action. My first target of 32000 is achieved and around 31000 we might see a bounce which might bring us over 40000, whereby a 61,8% retracement is10500 points up which I barely could argue in a fundamental context but markets are short term (1day - 1 year) out of logical valuations and with the crazy greed factor it can even be extended - the fear factor gets priced faster. Anyway thats a big rally it seems from a new investors point of view although its a scenario which will take place in a time frame of 2 quarters before the overall downtrend resumes and makes the 20000 as a mandatory target but a generous 10000 ( which is 8000-12000) is likely within6-8 quarters. keep in mind that in that context all exchanges will have lost more than half of their value more likely 70-90%. This picture you will find in almost all stock markets. Q3 and 4 will be those up quarters very likely (90%) only one bad news missing is that of the closure of the ruling party AKP - which will in practical terms if one can catch the roughly 31000 area be a good entry level even a 38.2% retracement may make you 7000 points. This is for trader only its not an investment and for those who are still in will get a chance to exit out on higher levels.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Turkey technical special
The chart of the quarterly XU100 tells the whole story just by the price action. My first target of 32000 is achieved and around 31000 we might see a bounce which might bring us over 40000, whereby a 61,8% retracement is10500 points up which I barely could argue in a fundamental context but markets are short term (1day - 1 year) out of logical valuations and with the crazy greed factor it can even be extended - the fear factor gets priced faster. Anyway thats a big rally it seems from a new investors point of view although its a scenario which will take place in a time frame of 2 quarters before the overall downtrend resumes and makes the 20000 as a mandatory target but a generous 10000 ( which is 8000-12000) is likely within6-8 quarters. keep in mind that in that context all exchanges will have lost more than half of their value more likely 70-90%. This picture you will find in almost all stock markets. Q3 and 4 will be those up quarters very likely (90%) only one bad news missing is that of the closure of the ruling party AKP - which will in practical terms if one can catch the roughly 31000 area be a good entry level even a 38.2% retracement may make you 7000 points. This is for trader only its not an investment and for those who are still in will get a chance to exit out on higher levels.
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