THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, July 18, 2008

sucker rally has started?

The full moon in direct angle to Uranus has triggered the short covering rally with financials the leading force. The 12 count in XBD has been taken away for now again due to the short selling rules, Wells Fargo and JPM the latter one just in a fundamental perspective trades at almost 20 times earning (trailing) and going forward it will not make better earnings. Relief rallies tend to exaggerate though and we are not finished yet. We also have the expiration of options manipulations going on, adding to the situation.
The oil turn (top) is in place as expected and will support oil sensitive stocks over the next weeks (airlines, cars etc.) but the financial story is not finished by fundamental means. we have still week 9 turns all over the place after deep extensions below weekly bollinger bands that is a normal reflex. XBD even reached almost (120) the overall taget of 110 deriving from a Headshoulders pattern and with an 11 weekly we know it will happen at some point that we hit 110. The question is first more rally and lower afterwards or short term test of the lowere lows?
The overall picture does not favor an immediate test of the lower lows since we have only a time window of 2 weeks until new moon. The wave counts show we are in final stage wave 4 up of bigger wave 5 down. so we will see wave 5 down of wave 5 until the 1. August and when will rally up to 1340 even 1370 SPX.
Almost all sentiment and technical indicators ask for a relief or sucker rally. Tricky part will be the tech sector as I mentioned earlier and we see by earnings (Goog, MSFT) the negative spin on tech remains for another 2-3 weeks. So far we reached our minimum target at 1780 NDX which should be retested at least if not extended to the downside.
The downside move next week til end of July should be followed by a more severe rally (minimum target 1340 SPX) starting around new moon 1st August. Vix as expected made only a brief trip to 30 level but another attempt should follow within the next 2 weeks, adding to the overall picture.
Keep in mind this is a rally within a bear market - the banks have so much contaminated stuff in their balance sheets which nobody is adressing at all, just to throw in the 450 tril OTC derivatives and neither the FED nor over authorities are pushing them to bring up a clear picture but on the other hand they may have a good reason - they do not want to open the box of pandora. Anyway medium term we have a rendevouz with 750 SPX - thats the best case scenario. I am afraid it will be far lower. Trailing PE at 14 so same earnings with an inflation evaluation (single digit PE) makes it 900, let earnings half and valuation come to extreme like 1930 (5 times)and we are at 300 SPX.

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