We will see the truth of the downside magnitude when SPX hits 1225 - a close below indicates more weakness ahead. The driver will be the XBD with a test of 142 area mandatory but further weakness is just a matter of time. The crucial aspect will be the NDX , which should retest 1800 but likely will retest 1760 even. The test of 1760 next week will decide how the story will develop.
Around new moon (solar eclipse) on August 1st, markets should go up again for a few days, since window dressing is part of the action but some negative aspects on August 6th might bring the rollercoaster aspect back before going higher again.
The time frame from August 5th to 18th is the most dangerous for a military conflict and will be a very challenging time somehow also for the markets. That we will look into when it's closer, for now expect more weakness with Monday likely an upside day. Even later today we can turn upside since the Paulson GSE ruling will come on the weekend, but reality will bite since it does not solve the problem its just a onetime painkiller event. The second half of next week should be positive with a test of 1225 as a likely turning point.