There is plenty more downside ahead in the next 18-24 months. Oil has made the expected top at 146/8 area and is now heading for 100/10 area.
DOW made a combo 13 daily and a week 9 (next week), which is the basic count for a countertrend rally.
Yet the major driver XBD is still in week 11 and we need another lower week, next week to get the capitulation at 12 respectively 13 count the week after. Also, some price targets are not entirely reached the NDX should dip to 1780 and the DOWs to 10800 (10700 is 50% retracement). The big support for the SPX is around 1225 (1175 is a sellout target and 50%) and VIX should come close to 30 at least a 28-9 reading next week. A capitulation in Tech is very likely since that was the long bet most recommended and a test of 1700 is even possible.
Putting it into proportion, a drop of another 2% (minimum)-5 % in some indices is required for the capitulation and the VIX to reach 28 at least. Next week's full moon is on the day of the MER earnings announcement with some capital raising initiatives and Citi could be ugly as well.ell.