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Friday, July 25, 2008

Never heard so many strange ideas at once

Bill Gross from Pimco says one of the wisest guys he knows (I hope its not Greenspan) suggested the government should buy $1 mil. houses and blow them into the air to start all over again.

No clue what could be wise in reducing the supply through such silly ideas - his next idea might be to start a war to stimulate the economy - the wise man's. Usually Mr. Gross stands out for thinking against Wall Street but since he connected with Mr. Greenspan he has a different attitude, it seems.

Cramer says buy houses now???? If I recall correctly he was a buyer of Brokers around the high

Excerpt from CNBC

Cramer says: “We saw quarters from Wells Fargo , from USB . We saw a quarter from JPMorgan. We saw a quarter from Bank of America . And those guys had already put charges in that made it so that when housing does bottom, they will be overreserved. That’s the ticket. That’s what Wachovia did. They anticipated a housing bottom and they’re going to be right.”

If banks were so smart to begin with, why did they lose $500bil. (officialy - in real terms it far more) so far and have at least the same distance to go? Why is it a smart sign, when they do what is necessary to write off what they lost as long as they can deduct it from gains? The only reason to buy now would be if you believed a hyperinflation is right behind the corner, when hard commodities are better than any money respectively stocks or bonds but gold might be an option as well? No other reason to buy anything – rather, it's time to fasten the seat belts and reduce expenses. He did not foresee the crises, so might be not the most qualified to call it off.

Mr. Kudlow from CNBC, who finds every statistic, which proves his evergreen bull song - now it's the rising median house price. Actually, I do not know if there is an uptick in house prices but, as in any wave pattern even in a housing bear market, we might see people catching falling knives. Deterioration of the job market with jobless claims north of 400k is not a signal for a bottom in housing. In 2 years, when America is in depression mode and jobless figures are in double digits, what will the housing market be like? No idea what kind of faked statistics he wants to believe in, but obviously foreclosures are still rising sharply and they will add to the already high rate of close to 12 month supply. His opinions are even worse than the mainstream and his dangerous drumming the bull at the highs should make him a bit modest.

Excerpt from Bloomberg:

U.S. Foreclosures Double as House Prices Decline

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