Dow tech outlook - heading for new lows

The honeymoon for the market did not last too long - just the usual expiration manipulation. We are testing the support area at 8000 but its only a matter of a few days to break below. We do count setup 9's today which will show how momentum is about tomorrow or rather Thursday as the BKX will make a daily 13 (today 11) already at new lows. We clearly need another capitulation and lower lows to mark a bottom for this quarter. In DOW term we need to test the 2002/3 lows still around 7200-400 to get the low and it will take another 4-6 weeks time frame to accomplish that. The Jan effect is definitely a bad omen but the facts do speak for them self as the market is simply overvalued at a big margin. We should trade single digit trailing earnings and are around 15times. But as hope dies last people will try to play the big spender global effort as the savior of the day and try to get the rally going as they did around Dec. The chart says around 7200 they likely get the story going up again even for a few more weeks this time and a bigger magnitude before we see a steeper decline at the 4th quarter.