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Saturday, January 31, 2009

SPX technical update - the path is clear we have to test the NOV lows rather make new ones

So far 50 % of the S&P500 earnings are out and are down by 50% with the useless analysts expecting between 12-15% down after 4-5 down revisions they still do not get it right.
I think they should close the Harvard MBA program entirely as its just produces a bunch of overpaid morons. The earnings will be around 55-60 for 2009 best case that does put fair value around 500 assuming the 2010 situation will even be worse.
Lets get to the tech situation which is clearly headed south. We closed at weeks low after a spike up and we close on the lowest monthly basis yet in this bear market that are very obvious signals. The price action of 2002/3 is also quite clear about what will happen. We need to test the 2008 Nov lows and as a matter of fact make new ones to blow all those early bulls out in a second capitulation. Within 2 weeks we will break below 800 and drop to 700 within 4-6 weeks. The only thing we missed so far was to complete the Combo 13 count on the VIX but that might be a model problem as the parameters are not adjusted correctly ( I had expected another drop into the 35-8 are) but we just made a quick dip below 40. There is a diminished probability we might make that next week but last weeks price action makes me sceptical we can get there. A little upmove is likely next week but will turn down finally. Selling any strength is the right way to go until we hit those lows and finish wave 5 of 3 down.

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