SPX tech outlook for this year

We have a striking parallel to the 02/3 low building process right now which is very tempting but will not work out finally. So far the price action is very similar we are trading in a 750 -950 channel the first thrust down was in panic manner as it was back then. Now we are heading for the second test which will be a bit lower.
Lets look at the different parts we got there in half the time compared to 2000-03 and we dropped below the 200 month MA and stay there ( that is very important). The fundamental background is different we have the worst fundamental background in 100 years - yes as a matter of fact is worse than 1929 since the banks around the globe (western countries) are bankrupt but also over financial institutions have been wiped out and only survive to unprecedented bailouts measures by various governments. The potential of up to 800 tril. in derivative losses ( they will be triggered ) are threatening to kill the entire system and governments. The credit crunch caused by the basic default of the financial system has brought the entire industry to a grinding halt as the cash flow can not be financed any more and the consumers are aware that they not only do / or may loose their jobs but also their life savings hence consumption will be reduced dramatically. The huge aid programs by various governments will spark a straw fire of economic activities. But we have evidence with Japan that such measures do not change the tide of a necessary correction.
At some point in this quarter we will have the bottom or to put it into wave terms as we are in wave 5 of 3 down currently a bigger wave 4 correction up is due afterwards. Big wave 5 down I do expect for the 4th quarter and that should trigger a breakout of the 750 - 1500 trading range we had for 9-10 years. So after the lows are set this quarter around 700-50 we might get a test of the 200 month MA at 1000 to turn back down again.