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Wednesday, January 14, 2009

One year DOW chart of 110 years gives a clear perspective

Sometimes its just the visual effect of an chart which tells the whole story or whats to come. The yearly DOW chart in log version is pretty obvious where the markets are heading too. We have years of declining prices to face with severe losses still ahead. Just take the 1929-32 decline as a model but keep in mind the problems are even bigger now with record OTC derivatives out there up to 800 tril. Dollar. The Dow has to drop to 4000 as a mandatory part just bringing current earnings to an acceptable level of 8 times earnings. Have earnings drop over the next 3 years 20% per year for 3 more years even 1000 DOW is possible. The MACD in yearly terms is extremely overbought and needs years of downside to normalise - plus the bearish divergence pattern is very obvious as a matter of fact hinting to a strong downside move.What we can see though is this kind of Head & Shoulder pattern with the neckline around 7500 which will hold for now ( next 2 quarters) very likely but a close below triggers a massive sell off in the years to come.

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