The markets turned as expected this week but it will be a little more tricky as we go forward. The VIX indicator is not finished yet ( we did not produce the 13 counts)and we should see a retest of the highs respectively for the VIX of the lows once again. Interesting is that on the first real trading day all gains of the hyped little rally disappeared so easily. The Dow on the left hand shows that we are basically in a sideways consolidation without the window dressing holiday season markets would have barely markets did what I thought they would do so far reached those level any way. Markets behaved as expected so far and the earnings season will basically drag the market down again and as earnings is through we start another strong rally up from a lower level. It will either test the 8000 level in DOW terms or make a retest of the lows around 7500. I am not sure yet about the magnitude for the short term - we have to see how the markets behave around 8000 DOW and it might depend on factors which are hard to time as the geopolitical risks are increasing. We can figure it out going forward as we will go in a tricky period with Mercury turning retrograde on the 11th for 3 weeks will makes good analysis harder.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
DOW technical outlook
The markets turned as expected this week but it will be a little more tricky as we go forward. The VIX indicator is not finished yet ( we did not produce the 13 counts)and we should see a retest of the highs respectively for the VIX of the lows once again. Interesting is that on the first real trading day all gains of the hyped little rally disappeared so easily. The Dow on the left hand shows that we are basically in a sideways consolidation without the window dressing holiday season markets would have barely markets did what I thought they would do so far reached those level any way. Markets behaved as expected so far and the earnings season will basically drag the market down again and as earnings is through we start another strong rally up from a lower level. It will either test the 8000 level in DOW terms or make a retest of the lows around 7500. I am not sure yet about the magnitude for the short term - we have to see how the markets behave around 8000 DOW and it might depend on factors which are hard to time as the geopolitical risks are increasing. We can figure it out going forward as we will go in a tricky period with Mercury turning retrograde on the 11th for 3 weeks will makes good analysis harder.
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