The overall picture adds up as the NDX made a daily SEQ 13 today but the XBD is still on the 12 count as the financials are again a negative driving force. The support for the NDX is around 1175 as for the SPX at 860.SPX hourly did not complete the hourly count yesterday and should today settle the low for this week. Option expiration will take over some of the momentum this week and so far most of the last months it settled to the upside. Still after a little upside we will drop again the next 2-3 weeks to lower levels - kind of try to retest the lows ( it will be done at some point in Q1 but I am not sure yet if it happens now with the full magnitude. The probability is above 60% as the carry trades move into the right direction and even commodities are on a soft bias for now. A few contrarian indicators have risen to levels which do allow for a severe drop.
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