THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Some sentiment indicators confirm short term top

The Rydex has risen to insane levels all though there must be clearly some problem in the calculation as you can see yourself by the sudden rise and drop to unseen levels but even at current levels we are rather at crash level.

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/streetools/market_tools/rydex_nu.aspx



More importantly is the MA's on the ISEE Put/Call ratio's reached levels there the market usually turns around. the 10 day MA is close to 150 but we have a little tolerance as the 20 day can also reach that level being currently at 134.

The VIX counts a 12 Combo today getting into the likely turn around zone of 35-38

More and more bullish market calls on the market get published -lıke Goldman reiterating 1100 SPX today - just to remind their calls were dead wrong the last years ( at least the ones they made for the puplic).

Do not fall for this fools game they play right now and the talking heads making the noise to get you in the mood. Spx target is rather 600 than 1100-200 for end of 2009. The little spark the Obama and other nations aid packages make will be short lived and you can do the math yourself. Obama calls for 775 bil. in 2 years over 300 bil of it will be Tax rebates who will vanish without almost ne effect. The remaining close to 500 bil. spread over 2 years is nothing really in a contracting deep recession or very likely depression. America is a 14 tril economy so the half of 500 bil matches 2 % of that economy that might smooth the process on paper but as soon as the Bond bubble bursts and interest rates go higher that will do much more harm than this printed money can do good.

Healing Cancer can not be done with an 'Aspirin' and we all have learned that Chemo-therapy is a painful process and does not guarantee the result - that matches more the problem we have globally right now.

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