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Wednesday, April 22, 2009

EUR outlook

O 'Neill from Goldman is right about changing his call on the Dollar. He turned to a Dollar bull as we are about to enter the next leg down in the EURO.
We are a few weeks away from a game changing event as the 50 week MA will cross a flat 200 week MA. Last time that happened we saw an incredible run on the EUR in DEC 2002 and the rally lasted for over 60 points.
For now the target is around 1.20 with 1.2160 the 50% retracement level and the 200 month MA at 1.19 which is in sink with some indicators target zone as well. From that low I am looking for another spike towards 1.35 before a bigger move towards 1.05-10 should start. The problems for the EUR are looming as the EU will fall into a crisis as the economy deteriorates further and the weaker countries will seek to be saved and the stronger ones will barely be able to handle themselves. Thanks to the clever salespeople of Goldman,JPM and Merrill tons of toxic assets have been unloaded on EU banks and funds as the IMF statistics show. The next problem is that the EU especially the leading countries depend on exports and one outcome of this whole globalisation mess will be nationalism as it makes no sense to save the industries with huge subsidies and not make Americans buy American. Those issues are still boiling beneath the surface but will inevitably pop up next year when things look more ugly unfortunately. The ECB will go down to 1 % interest in pathetic small steps ( whats the point) and we have crucial elections in Germany later this year after EU elections in summer. That all together carries an weak EUR bias plus they as exporters are happy to get the competitive edge as long as commodity prices stay low.

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