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Thursday, April 9, 2009

EURTRY technical and fundamental outlook

The EURTRY turned with a weekly 13 and is no heading for the first target zone at 2.03/7 as wave A down with the 50% retracement at 2.03. A wave B up should follow with the overall market corrections some time next week. The appreciation of the TRY was is fundamentally not warranted but that is true for most if not all markets rising currently.
Wave B up should bring the EUR back towards the 2.20 level before wave C down will likely test the 200 MA around 2.00 in the JULY /AUG time frame.
Turkey has one fundamental economic shift but the magnitude of the event is hard to figure as they now have found officially Crude OIL on Turkish soil which was an open secret for at least 20 years. Contracts with Exxon and others are signed and as I mentioned in an earlier blog if serious reserves should be acknowledged that would do a dramatic game changer in the valuation of the LIRA going forward. I do doubt though that we will hear any official numbers anytime soon. Two major economic drivers have imploded the car-manufacturing and the construction business, which was a huge boom. Tourism the third crucial economic driver will show this summer its face but going forward the impact of the new Obama foreign policy might have a big impact as the next big boom around the world the weapon industry will be a crucial driver of economics and its rumored that Turkey will enter this industry in bigger scale.

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I am a professional independent trader