USDTRY reached the target zone we set months ago at 1.80-5 and has turned down trading within a trading channel. We are now heading for 1.55 support thereby the 38% retracement is at 1.56. This has right now also support by the EURUSD as Dollar weakens while markets rise. The TRY should have a soft bias overall and we will see USDTRY rising again after the 1.55 test is done towards 1.70 in the first wave.The local elections in Turkey were painful for the AKP (ruling party but not disastrous and the pending IMF agreement might support a stronger Lira. The problem is that the IMF is not really an institution with the intention to help but rather spoil the countries sovereignty and undermine economic stability ( that's of course the hidden agenda).
Hence they will attack the recent stimulus packages to aid the economy as they rather demand taxes to be raised then to be eased which might bring on tough negotiations. Its beyond all logic as all big countries do exactly that and IMF supports it ( they have a 2 class economic evaluation model it seems.
As we have the temporary upswing in markets and the attempt to create the same deception for the underlying economies the Lira has a temporary upswing but the matter of fact is that Turkey has deep negative interest rates as the Central bank cuts rates and the real inflation is quite high as the government has raised some basic prices from gas to gasoline and electricity sharply.
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