THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Sentiment update

As you can see most reading heave risen quite a bit actually high enough for a correction as we have many more not displayed her who are at really overbought levels - still not at extremes as the chart at the bottom does show which is still in the 'Panic ' area.

The technical picture confirms this overall reading as do Astro cycles hence coming week we can expect the correction to start as the non financial sector will not look as good ( financial look good due to cooking earnings up and the underlying fundamentals are deteriorating still).

The other thing which is the stress test results will not look that pretty as the early signs are not promising and the officials can not paint a too rosy picture as reality will hunt them down very soon ( 2 quarters from here).

Nevertheless we will face a 2 weeks correction before wave C up kicks in to finish the overall sucker rally. Do not believe for a moment we are done to the downside as all big bear markets turned at 8ish PE's to mark bottoms we need to drop to 400 SPX to mark that for now.

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.

Last Week2 Weeks Ago3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index

Consensus Bullish Sentiment44%42%30%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441.
AAII Index



Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane

Bullish Consensus40%38%37%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment

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