The NDX is building a small Head & Shoulder top it seems and we might have to drop towards 1140 to fill the pattern as we are short term overbought. The strong resistance at 1280 will be taken out eventually in wave C up but for now we are clearly in wave B down still. Next week earnings season starts which will be volatile by nature but with a downside bias as we are in valuations terms anyway expensive at current levels. The surprise though could still come from some financials to the upside as they might show better numbers temporarily as some CEO's have indicated. In the tech area I do not see any chances for upside surprises as the picture for CAPEX is clearly still eroding (imploding). NDX should dive briefly below the 50 day MA and rally thereafter to 1280 again even making new highs around 1350 before a bigger selling wave hits at the end of April.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
NDX tech update
The NDX is building a small Head & Shoulder top it seems and we might have to drop towards 1140 to fill the pattern as we are short term overbought. The strong resistance at 1280 will be taken out eventually in wave C up but for now we are clearly in wave B down still. Next week earnings season starts which will be volatile by nature but with a downside bias as we are in valuations terms anyway expensive at current levels. The surprise though could still come from some financials to the upside as they might show better numbers temporarily as some CEO's have indicated. In the tech area I do not see any chances for upside surprises as the picture for CAPEX is clearly still eroding (imploding). NDX should dive briefly below the 50 day MA and rally thereafter to 1280 again even making new highs around 1350 before a bigger selling wave hits at the end of April.
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