THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, June 5, 2009

Another miracle of statistics - the payroll numbers do not make sense.

As we have on a weekly basis over 600k new jobless claims now for quite some time the May payroll number just came up with 345k jobs lost. That's insane and not possible but the way this kind of numbers are gathered has nothing to do with math its wild and proprietary guessing with a highly political bias. The Obama administration is sinking in more and more disgrace on a daily basis as they are the pure opposite of what one might call change.

Governments betraying you in this style are asking for the next tea party and as I can see from astrology they get one. Secretly the governments around the world are preparing for unrest by the way as I heard this from reliable sources this are the issues discussed on G-20 and G-/ meetings but never mentioned by the media. A member of a central bank told us that this was the highest priority issue discussed and taken care off.

Well we are with some statistical modifications still almost at the stress test level for the banks at 10.2 % with the official 9.4% number which should be alarming for all the 'green shoot' fan's. The second alarming aspect is the constantly dropping US bonds which are a harbinger of big trouble ahead as rising long term rates are crucial for not be able to turn around the economy. The massive FED buying programmes were useless and even produced losses for taxpayers but more importantly its a killer for the housing market as rising rates combined with rising job losses are the material which creates a deep depression.

Excerpt

‘Encouraging’ News

The slowdown in firings is ‘encouraging,” Christina Romer, who chairs the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Still, “you can’t ever say when the unemployment rate is at 9.4 percent that’s good news, of course. We know the economy is still in a severe recession, but what this does say is we’re seeing the pattern we’d expect to see.”

Payrolls were forecast to drop 520,000 after a 539,000 decrease initially reported for April, according to the median of 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 450,000 to 600,000. Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.

The jobless rate was projected to jump to 9.2 percent, with forecasts ranging from 9 percent to 9.4 percent.

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