Wave A up in Oil is in as it is for stock markets as they trade in sink with each other. We can expect now a retreat back to the 50/5 area before wave C up will complete the corrective upmove around 78/80.Starting in Q4 we will see a severe downturn again in overall economic activity which will undermine the demand even more and we can expect the retest of the lows but at some point we will see a decoupling of Oil from the stockmarket and economic correlations as the supply situation might change with plenty geopolitical risks developing a rising momentum and we can even expect that some big oil exporters might have rather interest in heating up the tensions in order to keep prices up. Chavez already gave such hints but also Russia will have a severe interest in keeping oil above 50 rather closer to 100 in order to survive the global downturn. What I am trying to say that with another severe downturn in economic activities stocks will fall to new lows but commodities might take a different path after going both down initially but the central banks throwing money even faster this time also on the real economy will create inflationary pressure.
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