THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Goldman - Its really amazing how wrong these analysts seem to be in general

I really made now specific research to guess that Goldman earning would come far above 4 Dollar per share - just by common sense and knowing they were riding the bull on behalf and with PPT but in any case an insider case they would make a killing this quarter. Bove as a bank analyst should come up with far better calls as he made plenty lethal dead wrong ones with being long on Citi he disqualified himself as that is an bankruptcy candidate.
Let me repeat Goldman will not be able to repeat this kind of quarter as it was a once in a century opportunity as with markets heading down in Q4which is not as easy to control and actually Goldman will be a step ahead compared to their peers but still be suffering as they hold exposure which will generate losses.
Anyway as soon as the markets and economy turns down again in Q3 the government and Goldman will come under increasing pressure and investigations as we have many cases of undeserved perks Goldman is getting with their taxpayer subsidies from zero financing as a 'bank' and no oversight as demanded by the FED as Goldman was riding a much too high leverage as a bank after all this events with taxpayers money.
Technically they entered a distribution pattern and will have a hard time surpassing the 150-160- area. I do expect still the final wave up in August for the overall market before we will be hit by the dire reality of a depression and new lows in markets.
But make no mistake here the other financials except JPM will not have suprising good numbers as Morgan Stanley for example missed most of the bull campaign but they also are not a member of the Rothschild gang.


Goldman Smashes Forecasts, Led by Strong Gain in Trading

Goldman Sachs Group reported an 33 percent rise in quarterly earnings on Tuesday as a strong gain in trading was offset by a one-time charge to repay government loans.

Wall Street's largest surviving investment bank reported net income for common shareholders of $2.7 billion, or $4.93 a share, compared with $2.05 billion, or $4.58 a share, in the closest year-earlier quarter.

The results came in above analysts' consensus forecast.

Analysts polled by Reuters Estimates forecast, on average, $3.49 a share, while those surveyed by First Call predicted earnings per share of $3.54.

Goldman [GS 150.51 1.07 (+0.72%) ], the first major U.S. bank to report second-quarter earnings, saw its performance bolstered by improving markets and strong trading results, as well as an upswing in advisory fees.

Trading income jumped 93 percent from a year ago, while its equity underwriting business produced record revenue of $736 million.

Investment banking revenue of $1.44 billion was down 15 percent from a year ago but rose 75 percent from the 2009 first quarter.

Gains were tempered by a one-time $426 million charge related to the repayment of $10 billion in loans from the U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program, known as TARP.

The strong second-quarter earnings were a result of "basic blocking and tackling for the firm," David Viniar, the bank's chief financial officer, said.

Viniar said the company focused on its core businesses, without ramping up risk.

This last line is at obviously a lie as Goldman was running at the highest VAR around 250 the last quarter of 2008 was at 195 - they even do not dare/care how much they make this kind of public lies anymore.

Second point to be made is as the financing of the 890 bil as of NOV 2008 roughly 250 bil is per share holders or long term debt the rest is financed at or close to zero due to the fact that taxpayers guaranteed or the bank holding structure gives them access to FED financing that gives them an advantage of at least 200 BB very conservatively on the 600 bil they finance which makes a difference of at least 1.2 bil per year. That is on the expense of taxpayers as the FED gives them far too low financing and they do not give any credits to Mainstreet at all hence its a pure one way benefit to Goldman.

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I am a professional independent trader