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Thursday, July 2, 2009

SPX tech update and the misconcept of the golden cross

These days a lot of people talk about a technical analysis without realy understanding them - one of them recently is the golden cross. A rise of the 50 MA through a steeply falling 200 MA has less of an impact ( far less) and this talking heads and some other cheerleaders try to trap you in something they never really took the effort to understand.
First of all we have dropped far below the 200 month MA which is around 1000 currently and the monthly 50 MA has turned down being at 1250 as we have been below 200 month MA only in 2 cases the last 100 years. The other negative aspect is that we have made a significant new low compared to the last significant in 2003 which confirms that we are in a major correction. That's rather more scary and that we need to test the overall support of this trend around 500 and see if it holds before we can assume a trend change.Thereby the best case scenario would be a repetition of the 1964-1980 sideways range for almost 2 decades thereby we would be now in inning 5. The second scenario is the Japanese version of things trading even far lower over another decade in waves. For the next 8 weeks the trading range is 830-1030 with a small correction due in July followed by new highs. Starting Sep we can expect a big correction marking wave 5 down - making new lows within 6-9 months the earlier mentioned 500 area will be the likely target which is still a 50 % drop from the 1000 we will reach some time this summer.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Ahmet, what's your call on this? Do you see us in the 1970s or the Japanese version?
Robin

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