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Thursday, November 12, 2009

EUR update

EUR has made a double top kind of formation as stocks phony upside move comes to an end for now. At some point though we will have a retest of the 1.60 mark but that rather seems to be an issue for 2010 as the bank regulation rules coming might upset the in God we trust fans it also can be triggered by an outside effect and the stars say we will get some ugly action like warfare. Its hard to say how deep the Dollar correction might run this year as the manipulators will defend their 1000 plus SPX mark for the yearend. The classic positive market window is Thanksgiving to Feb for markets their they usually make the most positive performance but that refers to regular typ of years and we are not in any such. MArkets are in topping out mode and the Dollar makes a short term bottom. We have the first Dem president with a weak Dollar policy and a weird market since fundamentally Europe is in a weaker position but if Trichet is stupid enough to think he can start an exit strategy already he might give the Euro the final boost to test the 1.60 level once again. In 2010 we will see a deep correction of stock markets before the second stimulus package will be triggered. It will depend a lot on Iran and Israel but rather more Israel as Iran will buy time clearly and Israel needs to attack at some point the nuc facilities. Hence in 2010 we will see the bigger Dollar recovery event in the first half. and that could be a substantial onelasting for months.

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