Tuesday, November 10, 2009
The 'bulls' are running out of steam again since this was nothing else but short covering. There is a small margin for new highs within the next days as the 50% retracement level is at 1125 for the SPX - but just let me say - the longer the sucker rally lasts the steeper will be the correction. I had expected a retest of the highs for Dec and modest new highs probably. Scenario needs now to be altered after making some homework on the Saturn / Pluto square I saw that the effect the last 100 years was rather a bit after the exact day 1-3 weeks but the result was quite steep of 30-40% confirming my retest of the lows scenario. The worst case scenario for the stress tests was 10.2 % jobless rate in 2010 which we have reached already by Oct 2009. Reaching that mark far quicker than anticipated and the real rate being rather close to 20%. The losses in the bank balance cheats are much more disastrous than anticipated ( and stated by the banks) by the FED and we will see at some point those effects hitting the market but rather at a stage where it might be too late.
Posted by getagrip at 11:17 AM