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Tuesday, November 10, 2009

SPX update

The 'bulls' are running out of steam again since this was nothing else but short covering. There is a small margin for new highs within the next days as the 50% retracement level is at 1125 for the SPX - but just let me say - the longer the sucker rally lasts the steeper will be the correction. I had expected a retest of the highs for Dec and modest new highs probably. Scenario needs now to be altered after making some homework on the Saturn / Pluto square I saw that the effect the last 100 years was rather a bit after the exact day 1-3 weeks but the result was quite steep of 30-40% confirming my retest of the lows scenario. The worst case scenario for the stress tests was 10.2 % jobless rate in 2010 which we have reached already by Oct 2009. Reaching that mark far quicker than anticipated and the real rate being rather close to 20%. The losses in the bank balance cheats are much more disastrous than anticipated ( and stated by the banks) by the FED and we will see at some point those effects hitting the market but rather at a stage where it might be too late.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

What will be the catalyst for a really big sell off? Everyone expects a correction in October or November and a rise into year-end. Almost all bears expect a sharp sell off in Q1 or Q2 2010. (some in Q3 or Q4 2010) It won't happen if everyone expects it.

I think that the most likely thing is that the market rises beyond anyones imagination and the crashes completely unexpectedly in 2011.

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