THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Wednesday brainstorming - part 1

1. The pieces are adding up for the big top - one part of a severe top is the bullish option scenario and that's building up. The MA on the ISEE are very good indicators 10 day around 150 and 20 around 140 would be ideal and we are heading there.

Historical

ISEEDate
Previous Trading Day18411/24/2009
10-Day Moving Average14011/11/2009 - 11/24/2009
20-Day Moving Average13310/28/2009 - 11/24/2009
50-Day Moving Average13109/16/2009 - 11/24/2009
52-Week High22003/09/2009
52-Week Low7710/20/2009

2. Half of Banks' Losses May Still Be Hidden: IMF Head

I doubt its only half since Subprime and Alt A are worth 5 tril p
lus various other fields which will add up to it so my old estimate remains rather around 10 tril. - why else would the FED even keep rising their balance sheet heading for 2.5 tril and keep rates at zero although they claim at the same time that the financial markets are stable and recession is over. Why did Japan keep rates at zero for 15 years because it takes plenty of time and government sponsored yield curves to heal the banks. Unfortunately the Japan experience is not to be repeated as the global economy is at the brink this time. As Rosenberg said we are rather in a depression and have just by some extraordionary measures blown the titanic back up but it will sink at the end and the horrifying part is that some forces trying to run this planet want exactly that to happen. The mantra of Freemasonary is order from chaos - so what they do now is to create the chaos.

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I am a professional independent trader