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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

brainstorming tuesday

1. The market is edgy today as Bonds test the lows the FED is in big trouble since any claim of more money printing could trigger a real crash first for bonds but stocks would follow as soon as the window dressing bullshit really is over early Jan.. The FED has failed except for creating a phony rally which was the hidden agenda all the time - creating jobs is just the excuse to deliver a free ride for the banks to make money but at the same time their bond positions accumulate losses but they might think that dropping stocks then they unload will drive save heaven buying to their rescue.

2. The bluff of Ms. Merkel as German banks are holding over 500 bil PIIGS does not carry a lot of spin. That America does not complain to load about the IMF bailing the PIIGS out as well is based on the fact that US banks also have a 350 bil exposure which is substantial after all. So far the IMF based US bailout proportion is less than the exposure banks have so far.

Easter Egg Out Of The BIS: US Banks Are On The Hook To The PIIGS By Over $350 Billion

Tyler Durden's picture




Last night, the BIS released its latest quarterly review, as always chock full of useful information. The one major item that caught our eye was the updated exposure toward the PIIGS countries by various foreign banks. And specifically the brand new category that had never been disclosed before by the BIS, namely the "other exposures" category, which per a rather closeted footnote is defined as: "other exposures consist of the positive market value of derivative contracts, guarantees extended and credit commitments." This is exposure that appears for the first time in an official BIS document. And it is sizable: while total foreign claims stood at $2,281 billion, the newly disclosed category accounts for a whopping two thirds of a trillion: $668 billion. How generous of the BIS to share this data which as recently as 2 years ago may have been considered as material, and these days is merely dismissed with a laugh. After all who cares unless the potential loss has at least 12 zeroes in it. Yet what is most significant for the US taxpayer, who is now dead set on proving that St Sebastian was an amateur when it comes to (in)voluntary martyrdom, is that US exposure to the P(I)IGS (Italy excluded, for the time being - give it a few months), has just tripled as a result of this revelation. While before it was "common knowledge" that US banks have nothing to lose should Europe go down the drain, it has now been revealed that US banks actually have $353 billion in exposure, of which $233 billion is of this newly revealed "other category."

And now that it is pro forma common knowledge that should the PIGS fails, that at least a few domestic banks would be wiped out, it also should be appreciated why the ECB will do everything to prevent an impairment to bondholders: with just under $2.3 trillion in potential partial or full losses on total exposure, the domino effect would blow up Europe overnight, then promptly wipe out the US and the rest of the world with it.

The country with biggest exposure to the PIGS is not surprisingly Germany with $513 billion, followed by France at $410 billion, Great Britain at $370 billion, and... the US at $353 billion. As for the next two dominoes to drop, Portugal and Spain, the countries whose banks are most at risk are Spain, France and Germany for Portugal and Germany, France and the US for Spain. Which explains why the Fed is now collaborating fully with the ECB from preventing the Portugues rout from hitting Spain, and makes us wonder just how many Spanish bonds the Fed may have been buying in recent weeks. As wedisclosed previously, it is certainly under the Fed's current mandate to buy Greek bonds if it chose to do so. But, as above, who really cares: everyone now knows the banker cartel is merely doing everything to delay the inevitable, day by day, with absolutely no follow through plans on what happens later. Unfortunately for the middle class it will be them, and not Ken Langone, bailing out these very same banks when the shit hits the fan once again, which it absolutely will as neither has anything changed, nor has the Fed's response of fixing bubbles with more bubbles been modified.

Here are some pretty charts that show just how screwed Europe (and America) is:

Total relative exposure by country:

Detailed exposure by country:

And total exposure by any country's banks. The US has been conveniently highlighted.

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