We need the Jan/Feb to deliver a final test of the 80 level before the trade can take off. We are building a powerful low in the 80 area -we need at least one weekly new low close below 80 to make the low finally ( probably even two ) - still a retest of the old record low at 79.75 is due. Most likely end of Jan 1st week of Feb. before the short can start to run as we also need some already existing shorts to be stopped out or capitulate. Target is 100 /02 area a break above that suggest much higher levels as we came down from 145 in 1998 the potential is much bigger but on the other hand its hard to see a Dollar strength from a fundamental point of view only a war in Asia could explain such a move.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
One of the top trades for 2011 - I expected it to start already in Q4 2010
We need the Jan/Feb to deliver a final test of the 80 level before the trade can take off. We are building a powerful low in the 80 area -we need at least one weekly new low close below 80 to make the low finally ( probably even two ) - still a retest of the old record low at 79.75 is due. Most likely end of Jan 1st week of Feb. before the short can start to run as we also need some already existing shorts to be stopped out or capitulate. Target is 100 /02 area a break above that suggest much higher levels as we came down from 145 in 1998 the potential is much bigger but on the other hand its hard to see a Dollar strength from a fundamental point of view only a war in Asia could explain such a move.
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