THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

brainstorming wednesday - orange alert for all markets

1. As bonds keep crashing the effect comes at a steep price soon as the effect the FED was supposed to achieve to stabilize the housing markets has not worked at all and with rising rates it will rather be counterproductive. Not to mention they should have accumulated losses of a few hundred billions in the soon 3 tril balance cheat in real terms since the MBS they hold were printed higher by the FEDs buying spree but if they tried to sell it they wourld rather lock in losses in a steep manner.
Sentiments are quite bullish now even as some do not produce very reliable absolute numbers ( as the Rydex) but the relative trend tells the story. ISE option ratio's are about to reach extreme levels soon as well the 10 day MA should reach 140 level before we can get some real downside action currently at 131 but early Jan we will have reached such levels I assume.

excerpt

Date PublishedPercent BullishPercent Bearish
12/0856.221.3
12/0155.421.8
11/2455.721.6
11/1756.220.2
11/1048.423.1
11/0346.724.4
10/2745.624.4
10/2045.122
10/1347.224.7
10/0645.628.3
09/2943.327.8
09/2241.429.3
09/1536.731.1
09/0833.332.2
09/0129.437.7
08/2533.331.2
08/1836.731.1
08/1141.727.5
08/0438.933.3
07/2838.234.9

DateNAV Adjusted N/U Ratio
12/070.578
12/060.526
12/030.515
12/020.512
12/010.490
11/300.485
11/290.498
11/260.500
11/240.502
11/230.498
11/220.495
11/190.459
11/180.463
11/170.508
11/160.474
11/150.485
11/120.475
11/110.512
11/100.511
11/090.494

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