THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

brainstorming tuesday - DEFCON 1 - Alarmstufe Rot

1. We have reached the tops by a error margin of max 2 % on the upside but with a downside potential of 25% from todays levels. Sentiment is at extremes as you will see later and reluctant bulls all around as the mighty FED seems to have put an invincible support below the market which is complete bullshit as they have failed to keep bond markets up and sit on tens of billions of losses already with a real fair pricing in MBS you can rather add a zero. As we go into the earnings season this week markets might oscillate for 2-3 weeks around this levels but one should exit longs and enter shorts at these levels.

excerpt

MONDAY, JANUARY 10, 2011Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment72%71%68%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441 . editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish55.9%51.6%63.3%
Bearish18.320.116.4
Neutral25.928.320.3
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus63%62%60%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator55.3%55.4%55.2%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180 . info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment

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