THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, January 13, 2011

DOW update - the missing link

The DOW is the laggard in this rally as it reaches our target of 11800 it makes a weekly 12 count with a daily 10 yesterday suggesting we will make 2-3 new highs before we have the top in. As today the earnings season kicks in with Intel followed by JP Morgan tomorrow we can expect some volatility. We can almost be sure that JPM will surprise to the upside as will Goldman later next week but the top for the DOW is in above 11800 and the risk is up to 12000 the downside is 9000-10000 area up to June but the top building will be volatile over the next 3 weeks. The green current 6 count makes it a high probability that we will not have a one spike high and turn right away. Some stocks have still some margin to the upside but the overall indices are ready for a steep correction from current level with a tolerance of roughly 1% to the upside. Even the outperforming TRANS has made the top for now but going forward it may even reach the 5500 level once again as the monthly indicators make a final rally a probability. First lets deal with the correction or short position one should starting to accumulate right now.

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