THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, January 17, 2011

Monday brainstorming - part 1

1. Sentiment again around highs which is not a good timing instrument what is though is astrology and we will have Full Moon and a trigon of Sun to the benign Jupiter Uranus conjunction on the 19th - could be the day as the DOW still needs at least one higher close. European markets hint rather on next week as the DAX needs a higher weekly close but that is rather of less importance.

excerpt

MONDAY, JANUARY 17, 2011Blank Image
INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment73%72%71%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441 . editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index
Bullish52.3%55.9%51.6%
Bearish23.418.320.1
Neutral24.225.928.3
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus63%63%62%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Indicator55.0%55.3%55.4%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180 . info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment
2. Some very good insights from one of the best technicians who was thrown own from CNBC for obscure arguments
excerpt
January 13 2011 mclarenreport.net.au
By Bill McLaren | Published Yesterday | January 2011 | Unrated
January 13 2011 CNBC / mclarenreport.net.au

After 10 years of doing a weekly interview on CNBC they have sent me an email stating that “new management” has decided to “bring in more guests from established firms.” So this will be my last CNBC Report.

I have received thousands of emails thanking me for publishing the Free reports over the past 10 years and they are truly appreciated. I will try to find another outlet for my forecasts within the next few months. The last message indicated we could find a high to the S&P Index around the first week in January or the first week in March. The 4th of January I sold a small position short and on the 10th covered the short position. The fact that there were three ascending trendlines made the position far too risky. The fact that the 3rd did not exhaust the move up meant that there was another exhaustion coming since “blowoff” trends or those with three ascending trendlines will almost always exhaust into their completions.

It did look impressive with the market going up into the price and time window drawn a long time ago. But the pattern of trend and volume did not confirm a top. If the index goes up into the March time window it will be 2 years from low, 180 days from low and 90 days from low. If that is the case there could also be a low around the 29th of January at 60 days from low and make the last drive 30 calendar days. There are also some significant cycle maturing this year in agricultural commodities that need to be monitored.

This now leaves the 1360 level as the target for the S&P 500 assuming the 1289 level will now give way to the rally.


Disclaimer: All the reports and content in the entire McLaren Report web site (including this report) are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading advice nor an invitation to buy or sell securities. The views are the personal views of the author. Before acting on any of the ideas expressed, the reader should seek professional advice to determine the suitability in view of his or her personal circumstances.


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