THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, January 3, 2011

Monday brainstorming - part 1

1. The next 48h are very bullish indeed as not only the 3rd and final Jupiter Uranus conjunctions happens on the 4th but also at the same day Venus is in an exact trigon to both - interestingly on the 4th we also have a Solar Eclipse which on the other hand is rather negative as it is in a square to Saturn and happens in Saturns sign of Capricorn. The point with astrology is though that the day the stars align is not the day the turns happen but where the move is initiated - the move though follows a few days later usually. This combination is a perfect setup for a top within a few days. Actually we only have one missing link left on the technical front which is for the NDX to perform a weekly 13 which requires a new weekly high. The Dow produced one last week, SPX is already set. Also are we about te reach with the DOW the level for a right shoulder at 11800. Sentiment remains at extreme bullish levels even creeps higher therefor starting Wednesday we are on Defcon 1 for stocks. VIX and Bonds confirm a top at hand for stocks as both have formed a bottom ( in case of Bonds for now)

MONDAY, JANUARY 3, 2011Blank Image
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.
Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index
Consensus Bullish Sentiment71%68%60%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441 .
AAII Index
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane
Bullish Consensus62%60%59%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180 .
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients

Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment

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