THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Brainstorming Wednesday

1. Jim O'Neill the chief economist of Goldman had an interview at Bloomi TV and its amazing how many incredible bad calls this guy makes. We are on the same page when it comes to a bad call on The Dollar as we both shared a positive outlook around 1.25. I said in Feb that China would be my favorite play on the long side for a retracement trade and that they would be the beneficiaries of this crisis. He comes now at the top to say exactly that at the wrong price and time. What ultimately disqualified him was to mention some other emerging markets as good plays and one of the names he mentioned was Turkey - well that's is completely bulls... as I happen to have plenty of inside into that country at it is just another manipulation story or as Boves said on banks just 'Fumes' - Turkey has the biggest contraction and is rising taxes and other thinks like gasoline prices which will undermine any growth if such a green shoot was ever to develop. China story on the upside is done and the worst part for global economies is still ahead. O'Neill never called for the Recession/ Depression scenario - he is rather the advocate of the BRIC story which is not turning out the way he meant it to be.

2. The Bloomberg confidence index at 22 month high - that means that even higher than at the time the crash started and the pretty lady claims on Bloomi TV that that makes/ will make people buy stocks - I am rather scared by such sentiment but confirms my overall top scenario which we are building right now.

Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.
- Albert Einstein

3. JP Morgan wants to make a huge sale of office space - would they do that if they really believed we are just at the start of the recovery or the worst is behind us
JPMorgan Chase is looking to sell 23 office properties in what may be the country's largest office real estate sale this year, the Wall Street Journal said in a report on its Website on Tuesday.
That goes in line with heavy insider selling in stocks in general as I said 2 years ago the Olympics and a prominent IPO like Blackwater would mark the high ( that was not a coincidence).

4. Fibonacci, Golden Cross its a disgrace to hear the talking heads to throw around those words as they not really understand what they might mean - if Michael Bloomberg would be not ashamed he would make them strip while they speak although he slowly moves into that direction but at least they do not have the same morons like on CNBC who obviously are a real propaganda machinery as they have 2 Goldman's working there with ever wrong but noisy Cramer as the most prominent example.

5. VAT (Value added tax) is the biggest government robbery scheme exploited more in Europe and some emerging markets right now but now they think to introduce it to America is well. Just the concept is pervers as you have to pay taxes again after your income has been taxed already whenever you consume. The real nasty part is that it effectively only hits lower to middle class as the wealthy players just buy everything through their companies and have the VAT returned to them as an expense. This robbery through governments has to be stopped since what do they finance through such taxes the bailouts of Wallstreet or the purchase of hundreds of billions of weapons which were never used but made some guys really rich.

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I am a professional independent trader