THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Nikkei - almost red alert (1 week behind)

The Nikkei looks basically as most others only it is an overall warning for the next 10 years. As the governments do now exactly what Japan did 20 years ago - which were stimulus packages and interest rates at zero but neglected to clean the system from the toxic stuff. - sounds familiar?
We have here as well a time window of 2-5 weeks before we will enter a bigger correction to the downside. Japan has still the trouble from creating the carry trade as the depression brought added problems on them with everybody covering the carry trade hence raising the Yen to harmful levels. Now with a global zero rate that will over time change and the currency disadvantage vanish. Problem is that their own domestic investors are the biggest carry traders as they are trained to a zero interest rate scenario for 2 decades now and searching for higher returns abroad. The Nikkei has the weakest performance and will reach 38.2% retracement around 11500- which is a likely target.

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