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Thursday, August 27, 2009

Oil tech update

Oil is still heading for the high target at 78/80 and it should take another 3-4 weeks to get there. Confirming my sector choice that oil stocks have still to go a bit higher against all odds but they look really cheap in comparison to other sectors. Thereafter we should see a sharp pulback towards the 60 level. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) clearly points to an sharp decline in global activity and oil is again not driven by fundamental demand but the same manipulation we had 2 years ago to the biggest fraction of the equation but its also an expression that real inflation is creeping into the commodities as a result of the excessive money printing of global central banks.

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