THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

SPX outlook

The SPX screwing around the 1000 level and I hear the SPX the worst month Sep. story now on an hourly basis makes it even more tricky. Though people are convinced only an overdue correction is up not a retest of the lows - well within the next 6-9 months we will see even new lows is my call made 9 months ago but I also took the liberty to call this rally up to 1000 in March. The point is as Mr Steinhardt remembered me yesterday the big picture remains the same. As also Astrology suggested we had the fake hope phase for a few months and the market was extremely oversold in March hence this is just the normal reflex sucker rally. What you can see by many means as the fundamentals are the worst in 60 years at least and we trade at 20 times trailing PE and made a bottom at 13 times? The most essential fundamentals are still deteriorating like the houseprices and related negative mortgage complex implications. All what the governments did so far is pretty much the same Japan made 20 years ago and that's what the market does as well. Now 20 years later we are around 10000 Nikkei matching SPX value is 3700 which is a value we will see overtime as the real deleveraging has to start and the cleansing of the system. We still have the same rotten banking system and the FED is throwing free money at them keeping the bubble alive but the systematic problems in the banks have not be resolved. same is true for all western societies to much debt which never can be repaid and we are getting closer to the Baby Boomer implosion point. Fact is that the systems are bankrupt and a big systematic crisis is needed to bring the inevitable changes. Debt is not the solution but the way to be enslaved to a point there it has to break one or the other way. The FED and other central banks bought some time and acted for Wallstreet claiming to handle the affair of Mainstreet but the economy is Mainstreet and they know where we are heading deep down. The market will reflect that soon and later and another manipulation effort is likely towards the end of the year but that's the final one as no one will give them any credit after that one failed as well.

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