The weekly Dow charts gives a good visual impression that we are reaching a top of some degree soon. 9600 should be the target as we have reached already the 38.2 retracement level at 9430. The time window is at least 1 week but could play out to be another 4 weeks until the distribution has fully played out. The government keeps pushing all options to have the upside manipulation running as they introduced a new rule on naked shorts which triggered short covering again. The Obama admin is playing a dangerous game here with Goldman. Talking up the market and faking statistics do not make the mess go away and since the same people who run us into this mess are back in charge like Summers its getting even worse. I stick to my recommendation above SPX 1000 start selling up to 1050 we will have a bit of zigzag thoıugh as we should see a little pullback next week. In Sep and Oct time frame we will drop at least to 8000 DOW and I believe even lower but it will depend short term if the Obama Admin pulls the next stimulus card out of the hat once that happens before we can determine how far we will go. Also the financial industry will have a high interest to make this year a positive one as their balance sheets can barely take another hit - lets see in 3 months how it will play out.
Friday, August 7, 2009
DOW tech update and outlook
The weekly Dow charts gives a good visual impression that we are reaching a top of some degree soon. 9600 should be the target as we have reached already the 38.2 retracement level at 9430. The time window is at least 1 week but could play out to be another 4 weeks until the distribution has fully played out. The government keeps pushing all options to have the upside manipulation running as they introduced a new rule on naked shorts which triggered short covering again. The Obama admin is playing a dangerous game here with Goldman. Talking up the market and faking statistics do not make the mess go away and since the same people who run us into this mess are back in charge like Summers its getting even worse. I stick to my recommendation above SPX 1000 start selling up to 1050 we will have a bit of zigzag thoıugh as we should see a little pullback next week. In Sep and Oct time frame we will drop at least to 8000 DOW and I believe even lower but it will depend short term if the Obama Admin pulls the next stimulus card out of the hat once that happens before we can determine how far we will go. Also the financial industry will have a high interest to make this year a positive one as their balance sheets can barely take another hit - lets see in 3 months how it will play out.
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