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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Brainstorming Tuesday - part 1

1. The SPX made the 1080 spike as expected but sold off quickly from that level. On the other hand the 'Hammer' formation was confirmed so far by today's price action. Still the second half of the week should be a retest of the downside as expected as the market is bound to move with the Germany bails out Greece bullshit. Germany will and can not bail out Greece on their own anyway but it some way a EU initiative can be expected although not a substantial one as the problem is far bigger than Greece hence Greece could become the next Lehman and Spain rather the AIG
Since they meet on the 11th and my anticipation is the brief rally starts around New Moon 13th we can rather expect a positive announcement on the coming weekend. From a tactical point of view it would even be smart to get people short into the weekend and trigger the bear-squeeze Monday morning.

2. I really appreciate and share the most opinions at zerohedge - I think they got the Bund short wrong for the next months as I see the next months with a stock decline getting deeper and save heaven buying being a driver for Bunds until they reach the 126 level - that is rather a level to start shorting Bunds. Could make sense depends on where the stockmarket is and how far the Dubai-kind first bailout of Greece may have gone but finally it will default as Europe can not save itself as roughly 40% are already at the brink of default and it is rather poised to get more since we are still in the early stage of the depression.

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