THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Monday, February 8, 2010

Sentiment update

We have some short term erosion of bullish sentiment which confirms my view that the bounce due next week for 2 weeks has a high probability as the ISEE not shown blow has had 2 days below 100 in a row and the 10 day MA gas dropped to 108 critical would be a level of 100 or below and the one Rydex has dropped to 51 which is an extreme level (See below) although a different model comes to a drastic different level but the model below has worked quite well so far. Also Investor Intel. has dropped a bit to 38.9 bulls vs. 22.2 bears which still leaves some downside scope as the bears stay stubbornly low around the March lows we had 54% bears.

excerpts

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 8, 2010 Blank Image

INVESTOR SENTIMENT READINGS
High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low ones, market bottoms.

Last Week2 Weeks Ago.3 Weeks Ago
Consensus Index

Consensus Bullish Sentiment58%64%69%
Source: Consensus Inc., P.O. Box 520526,Independence, Mo.
Historical data available at (800) 383-1441. editor@consensus-inc.com
AAII Index

Bullish35.0%40.0%47.4%

Bearish36.734.726.9

Neutral28.325.325.6
Source: American Association of Individual Investors,
625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611 (312) 280-0170.
Market Vane

Bullish Consensus52%59%58%
Source: Market Vane, P.O. Box 90490,
Pasadena, CA 91109 (626) 395-7436.
FC Market Sentiment

Indicator57.4%57.6%57.4%
Source: First Coverage 260 Franklin St., Suite 900
Boston, MA 02110-3112 (617) 303-0180. info@firstcoverage.com
FC Market Sentiment is a proprietary indicator derived from actionable sell-side trade ideas sent by the sell-side to their buy-side clients over the First Coverage platform. Over 1,000 institutional sales people at more than 250 firms participate on the First Coverage platform and have contributed hundreds of thousands of ideas since inception. Each Idea is associated with a ticker or sector and is tagged bullish or bearish by the creator. This data is aggregated at the sector, industry and market level. The FC Market Sentiment score ranges from 0-100 (0=most bearish, 50=neutral, and 100=most bullish) and represents a completely objective, real-time view into what advice the sell-side is providing to their buy-side clients


Citigroup Panic/Euphoria Model
Market Sentiment
Date NAV Adjusted N/U Ratio
2/4/2010 0.514
2/3/2010 0.628
2/2/2010 0.606
2/1/2010 0.588
1/29/2010 0.686
1/28/2010 0.678
1/27/2010 0.682
1/26/2010 0.700
1/25/2010 0.704
1/22/2010 0.757


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