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Friday, February 5, 2010

S&P Will Correct to 2009 March 5 Low - confirming my target

Not a lot I can add as it matches my assumptions - today we got the news that 8.4 mio jobs were lost as Obama was speaking of 7 mio all the time. The real unemployment is rather over 20% and the foreclosure train is still rolling with a huge pile of shadow foreclosures as banks can not write off in the speed which by the way creates a hidden aid to some parts of Mainstreet as they can stay in homes rent free for a year or even more which should add buying power of 10s of billions per year.

Even while they present numbers they sell the naked emperor - the real rate within their phony stats is 10.6% respectively 18% for U6

Yet a number that avoids some of the constant fudging by the BLS, the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number, hit a new recent record: instead of 9.7%, this number was 10.6%, a 0.9% increase from December!

The same can be seen in the U-6 data. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%, even as the seasonally adjusted number declined to 16.5%.

SA U-6:

And here is the Non Seasonally Adjusted U-6:


As long as Obama allows banks to make billions of taxpayer sponsored profits who do not support real economy but takes away wealth from Mainstreet he only adds to the problems instead of solving them. He has not solved any of the structural issues although he had all majorities and will loose them in a few months turning America in these tough times into a helpless country which can not fight the problems which will deepen the downturn and make it a full blown depression. He hired all the lobbyists for Wallstreet into his team which was flawed right from the start.
He turned out to be a snake oil salesman as he had the public support to follow through with everything he wanted in to change and do what needed to be done in the beginning but just is a good speaker with plenty vanity and no guts or even worse with bad intentions.

Excerpt

The S&P 500 index is likely to correct down to the low of 677 hit on March 5 2009, Bill McLaren, independent trader, said on Friday.

But the decline will be interspersed with "counter-trend rallies" which usually last two to four trading days, he added.

McLaren told CNBC he sees the broader index reaching 960 on March 1.

"The rally up from the next major low will be the bull market top and it might just be a retest and then the index will trend down into 2012," he said.

We are in a five-year bear cycle which will top in 2010 to be followed by a two-year bear trend like in the 1930s and 1970s, according to McLaren.

"The concern for the debt of Portugal and Greece is not the real problem," McLaren said on 'Squawk Box Europe'. "The real problem is this consensus building that deficits must now be reined in."

The S&P suffered the worst day since April 20, 2009 on Thursd

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