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Thursday, February 18, 2010

Thursday brainstorming - part 1

1. The economic numbers today are mixed but the most crucial one shows (jobless claims) the depression is still creeping and as soon as the sovereign crisis triggers the next wave down the numbers will get ugly again even the official massaged ones. America with an unemployment around 20% and inflation heading for 10% (chart below is not updated) is already in a severe stagflation but at the edge to drop into depression, as similar to Europe a handful of states are already bankrupt and others on the verge to follow. The depression mode might rather be derived from the scary money supply growth which has very likely entered negative territory already.

Money Supply, M3 Chart
Alternate CPI Chart

Alternate Unemployment Chart

2. The SPX has reached the resistance area of 1100/05 and should start a small wave down from here towards 1075 but rather after the expiration tomorrow as 1100 will be fine t
o screw the long options but thats a small episode and should not last longer than 4 days and we can expect a second wave up to 1120 thereafter followed by another sharp sell off.

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