THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Thursday, February 4, 2010

part 3

5. Follow through to the downside apparently confirmed even for the ndx which closed higher yesterday because some lunatics wanted to push aapl and goog. as we test the recent lows in a wave context we should make new ones as my short term targets for this initial wave down are rather 1050 (extreme 1025) spx and 1680/1700 (extreme 1650) ndx. tomorrows job numbers have some downward revisions or rather upside in job losses in the pipe - which might be priced in to some degree. On a weekly chart basis the price action is very vulnerable to the downside still for one more week. As stated before around new Moon 13th you rather be out of shorts as a bigger bounce up is due compared to the last 3 days but from a lower ground. The EUR should have its low for now and is due for a bounce within 24h.

6 Many Goldman recommendations are getting crushed - if they still make a profit this quarter yoı will know that they are snake oil salespeople who trade against their clients - which should not be a surprise.


Carry Traders Getting Carry'ed Out Feet First, All Who Followed Goldman's BZL Trade Reco Now Taken To The Woodshed

All carry trade pairs (and the traders who still have these on) are getting the Friend-O treatment today. Whether the funding currency is the dollar ot the yen, the need to convert paper losses into real ones will likely hit the stops today causing a rush for the exits (if it hasn't happened already). At this point you can take Goldman's ever optimistic double down on the BZL trade and use it for toilet paper. One wonders if Lloyd wouldn't be happier not having a prop desk on days like today. Incidentally, both Deutsche Bank and Citi are actively eliminating their prop trading desks. Deutsche Bank earlier announced that "the bank has eliminated its proprietary credit trading business and reduced proprietary trading in equity and equity derivatives by 90 percent, Ackermann said in remarks prepared for the bank's annual results media conference on Thursday." Thank you Boaz Weinstein. In other news, Citi prop traders Matthew Newton and Matthew Carpenter has just bailed, seeing the writing on the wall.

Back to the carry trade pain, seen here in three beautiful charts.

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