THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Correcting the capitulation post of yesterday

Zerohedge chart only represents part of the facts as you can see below for yourself. It is always smart to check both categories hence also the mini contract as they often weirdly enough ( might explain that in a later post) act as antagonists - meaning they act just opposite to the other contract. So it makes sense to net them both out to see the real thing.
It is true that the big contract had a huge decrease regular contract on the short side for big speculators but for the same category we also had a huge decrease on the long side in the mini contract. The net effect big traders big contract was 66043 shorts terminated - on the other hand 192.914 net longs for big traders were terminated divided by 5 ( thats the factor between big and mini contarct ) 38583 in big contract terms. If you net out those 2 numbers we end up with 27.460 shorts being terminated for big traders which is not quite as big as zerohedge made it look - sorry for not double checking before I had it on my blog.

excerpt
S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE                    Code-138741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 03/23/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00) OPEN INTEREST: 309,880
COMMITMENTS
23,525 29,729 317 208,848 212,900 232,690 242,946 77,190 66,934

CHANGES FROM 03/16/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -171,375)
-1,342 -67,385 -7,081 -98,999 -86,508 -107,422 -160,974 -63,953 -10,401

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
7.6 9.6 0.1 67.4 68.7 75.1 78.4 24.9 21.6

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 129)
17 19 4 57 57 76 78

E-MINI S&P 500 STOCK INDEX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE             Code-13874A
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 03/23/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
($50 X S&P 500 INDEX) OPEN INTEREST: 2,348,917
COMMITMENTS
351,567 375,215 25,940 1644247 1710373 2021754 2111528 327,163 237,389

CHANGES FROM 03/16/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -1,229,912)
-349,979 -157,065 -25,589 -768,207 -719,729 -1143775 -902,383 -86,137 -327,529

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
15.0 16.0 1.1 70.0 72.8 86.1 89.9 13.9 10.1

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 451)
103 100 31 136 172 253 289

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